Scenario and resilience analyses
Analyzing and strategically managing climate risks and opportunities
The pressure from the market, stakeholders and regulation to understand the opportunities and risks of climate change for business models and assets is also steadily increasing in the real estate industry. Physical risks such as flooding, heat or storms are increasingly influencing property values, costs and income, while transitory risks - such as stricter energy efficiency requirements, CO₂ pricing or changes in demand - are shaping investment and financing decisions. To ensure the future viability of portfolios, location- and use-specific climate scenarios and early strategic alignment are becoming increasingly important.
At the same time, the regulatory framework is being tightened by requirements such as the EU taxonomy and CSRD, which establish scenario and resilience analyses as a key management tool and place high demands on data, transparency and governance. We support companies in understanding relevant climate and energy scenarios, quantifying financial and strategic impacts and integrating scenario analyses into existing processes in a structured manner.
Our analyses are based on recognized scientific sources such as IPCC, IEA, ENCORE and the UNEP Finance Initiative. If required, we also support the selection and implementation of suitable software solutions. With our business management and engineering expertise, we provide companies with holistic support to sustainably strengthen their resilience and long-term value development.
Our expertise
With many years of consulting experience, agradblue combines business management expertise for the strategic classification of climate-related impacts in the business context with sound engineering know-how for site-specific adaptation. In this way, we provide you with holistic support and help you to sustainably strengthen your company's resilience in a changing world.
Our services include:
- Conducting qualitative and quantitative scenario and resilience analyses for transitory and physical risks
- Calculation of the anticipated financial effects
o Sensitivity analyses for the effects of CO2 pricing in the portfolio (e.g. via ETS-2)
o Integration of climate risks into real estate valuation
o Introduction of damage curve models to quantify physical damage as part of the holding period - Methodological training and project implementation in a sparring approach
- Business area analyses and derivation of possible adjustment measures
- Reporting in accordance with CSRD, EU taxonomy and TCFD/TNFD and IFRS
- Support in software selection processes (especially for physical risks)